Science, culture, complexity

Tag: NASA Space Shuttle

  • Normalising deviance

    When a rocket launches, we usually only care about one thing: did it work? We cheer if it reaches orbit and we gasp if it doesn’t. The French philosopher Bruno Latour called this “black boxing” because when a machine is successful we stop looking at its complex inner parts, we just see an input, which is the launch, and then a satellite in orbit. The box becomes sealed by its own success. But Latour also found that a black box must crack open when things break: when a car stalls you need to open the hood. You can no longer ignore the engine and figure it out by working on the chassis.

    ISRO has yet to release the Failure Analysis Committee (FAC) report for the PSLV-C61 mission. For PSLV-C62, a short statement on its website says “a detailed analysis has been initiated”; I’m not sure if this is the same as a new FAC. If the organisation is opening the “black box” only for itself, investigating failures internally while keeping the results secret from the public and independent peers, it’s falling into a trap Latour expected: that objectivity doesn’t come from a single person or a single agency looking really hard at a problem but from having as many different people as possible, with different viewpoints and biases, looking at it.

    For years, NASA engineers knew that foam insulation was falling off the external fuel tank and hitting the Space Shuttle. They looked at it constantly and they analysed it. They did open the hood but they also  only talked to each other, and in the process they managed to convince themselves it wasn’t a safety risk. The American sociologist Diane Vaughan called this the ‘normalisation of deviance’: when small departures from conservative practice become routine because of the idea that “nothing bad happened last time”. If they’d released those internal reports to external aerodynamicists or independent safety boards before Columbia lifted off, they likely wouldn’t have had the disaster they did.

    Today ISRO risks the same ‘normalisation of deviance’: without external eyes to challenge its assumptions, its experts are at risk of convincing themselves that a recurring PS3 stage glitch is manageable — right up until it isn’t.

    Latour also often spoke of the ‘parliament of things’, the idea that technologies like rockets are part of our political and social world rather than simply being technical objects. If ISRO solves the problem internally, it might fix the specific valve or sensor or whatever but it won’t fix the institutional pressure that caused the quality control to slip in the first place. Only public scrutiny, i.e. the assembly of MPs and citizens asking irritating questions like “why?”, can force an agency to fix its hardware as well as its culture.

    Then we have institutional memory as well: when you fix a problem in secret you’re also withholding the lessons you’ve learnt from young engineers. Public reports are effectively a permanent, searchable archive of mistakes.

    In the 1979 book Laboratory Life: The Social Construction of Scientific Facts he coauthored with the British sociologist Steve Woolgar, Latour defined an “inscription” as any visual display produced by a lab setup, no matter how large or expensive, whose final output is a piece of visual information. For instance, a bioassay might start by pipetting chemicals and shaking tubes but it ends with a sheet of paper with numbers or a jagged line on a graph. That paper is the inscription. And at this point the scientists discard the physical substances (the chemical compounds) and retain the inscription.

    According to Latour, science is almost never a single ‘eureka!’ and almost always a series of inscriptions. This narrative is useful to understand that objectivity in science is often a myth: because scientists don’t just passively observe nature but are writers and craftworkers in their own right and draw on the corresponding skills to make sense of nature. A statement becomes a ‘fact’ only when the inscriptions supporting it are so clear and numerous, so that dissenting voices are silenced, and to challenge a fact you need to produce counter-inscriptions of a similar or greater calibre.

    But when there’s no inscription, when the FAC reports are invisible, what do you challenge if you need to? How do you achieve progress in a rational way?

    The Soviet Union’s N1 rocket was its equivalent of the USA’s Saturn V,  designed to take cosmonauts to the moon. And it failed all four times it launched. An important reason was that, for all its other successes, the Soviet space programme was a sealed box. There was no independent press to ask why the rocket’s engines were exploding and no parliamentary questions about safety protocols — and inside this Matrioshka doll of secrecy its engineers were paralysed by political pressure. When data showed the rocket had a high probability of failure, managers simply massaged the numbers to please the Kremlin. And because the failures were state secrets, the collective intelligence of the scientific community was never brought to bear on the problem.

    Look at NASA’s Challenger disaster in 1986 on the other hand, which was also a tragedy born of a political pressure to launch at all costs. NASA managers had ignored warnings from engineers about the Space Shuttle’s O-rings failing in cold weather; they had, as with Columbia but 17 years earlier, normalised deviance and had accepted small failures right up until they added up to a big one. After the explosion the American system forced the black box open and the Rogers Commission identified the technical fault as well as interrogated the institutional culture. And by publicly airing these concerns — including ‘letting’ Richard Feynman dip an O-ring in ice water on live TV to prove a point — NASA was humiliated, yes, but it was also saved. The scrutiny forced it to rebuild its safety protocols, recover public trust, and allow an object as complex as the Space Shuttle to return to flight, until Columbia revealed this turnaround to have been incomplete.

    Because the Soviet state kept the failures of its N1 missions to the moon a secret, future Russian engineers couldn’t fully study those specific failures in open academic literature. On the other hand NASA’s failures are effectively public textbooks, with engineers in India, Europe, and China today studying its failure reports even today to avoid making the same mistakes. Likewise by hiding the PSLV-C61 report, and the PSLV-C39 FAC report and other reports of a similar nature, ISRO isn’t just hurting itself: it’s hurting the global knowledge base of rocketry. And like the Soviet Union of yore and unlike NASA in the late 1980s and the early 2000s, by shielding its findings from criticism, ISRO is ensuring its solutions are weak and at risk of failing again.

    If ISRO engineers know a failure will be hushed up to protect the prime minister’s image, they may be less likely to speak up about a faulty sensor or a cracked nozzle. If people can’t ask why the PS3 stage failed the pressure to fix it is essentially replaced by the pressure to just “make it look good” for the next launch. In the end by closing itself off ISRO risks becoming a fragile institution. It treats its rockets as matters of fact — unquestionable symbols of national pride — rather than as matters of concern, complex machines that need honest and sometimes harsh public maintenance. There’s a reason transparency is one of the ingredients of good engineering.

  • So what’s ISRO testing on May 23?

    Apologies about the frequency of updates having fallen off. Work’s been hectic at The Wire – we’re expanding editorially, technologically and aesthetically – but more to the point, Delhi’s heat ensures my body has no surplus energy when I get back from work to blog (it’s a heartless 38 ºC at 10 pm). Even now, what follows is a Facebook Note I posted on The Wire‘s page yesterday (but which didn’t find much traction because of the buildup to today’s big news: the election results from five states).

    At about 9.30 am on Monday, May 23, a two-stage rocket will take off from the Sriharikota High Altitude Range and climb to an altitude of 48 km while reaching a speed of ~1,770 m/s. At that point, the first stage – a solid-fuel booster – will break off from the rocket and fall down into the Bay of Bengal. At the same time, the second stage will still be on the ascent, climbing to 70 km and attaining a speed of ~1,871.5 m/s. Once there, it will begin its plummet down and so kick off the real mission.

    Its designation is RLV-TD HEX1 – for Reusable Launch Vehicle Technology Demonstration, Hypersonic Experiment 1. The mission’s been in the works for about five years now, with an investment of Rs.95 crore, and is part of the Indian Space Research Organisation’s plans to develop a reusable launch vehicle in another 15 years. The HEX1 mission design suggests the vehicle won’t look anything like SpaceX’s reusable rockets (to be precise, reusable boosters). Instead, it will look more like NASA’s Space Shuttle (retired in 2011): with an airplane-like fuselage flanked by delta wings.

    Screenshot from a presentation made by M.V. Dhekane, deputy director of the Control Guidance & Simulation Entity, VSSC, in 2014.
    Screenshot from a presentation made by M.V. Dhekane, deputy director of the Control Guidance & Simulation Entity, VSSC, in 2014.

    And the one that’ll be flying on Monday will be a version six-times smaller in scale than what may ultimately be built (though still 6.5-m long and weighing 1.7 tonnes). This is because ISRO intends to test two components of the flight for which the RLV’s size can be smaller. The first (in no specific order) will be the ability of its body to withstand high temperatures while falling through Earth’s atmosphere. ISRO will be monitoring the behaviour of heat-resistance silica tiles affixed to the RLV’s underside and its nose cone, made of a special carbon composite, as they experience temperatures of more than 1,600º C.

    The second will be the RLV’s onboard computer’s ability to manoeuvre the vehicle to a designated spot in the Bay of Bengal before crashing into the water. That spot, in a future test designated LEX and a date for which hasn’t been announced, will hold a floating runway over 5 km long – and where the RLV will land like an airplane. A third test will check for the RLV’s ability to perform a ‘return flight experiment’ (REX) and the final one will check the scramjet propulsion system, currently under development.

    ISRO has said that the RLV, should it someday be deployed, will be able to bring down launch costs from $5,000 per kg to $2,000 per kg – the sort of cuts SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has repeatedly asserted are necessary to hasten the advent of interplanetary human spaceflight. However, the development of advanced technologies isn’t the only driver at the heart of this ambition. Private spaceflight companies in the US recently lobbied for a ban against the launch of American satellites onboard ISRO rockets “because it would be tough for them to compete against ISRO’s low-cost options, which they also alleged were subsidised by the Indian government”.

    Then again, an ISRO official has since clarified that the organisation isn’t competing against SpaceX either. Speaking to Sputnik News, K. Sivan, director of the Vikram Sarabhai Space Centre in Thiruvananthapuram, said on May 17, “We are not involved in any race with anybody. We have our own problems to tackle. ISRO has its own domestic requirements which we need to satisfy.”

    So, good luck for HEX1, ISRO!

    Featured image: The PSLV C33 mission takes off to launch the IRNSS 1G satellite. Credit: ISRO.

    Note: This post earlier stated that the HEX1 chassis would experience temperatures of 5,000º C during atmospheric reentry. It’s actually 1,600º C and the mistake has been corrected.