Science, culture, complexity

Tag: Brian Keating

  • Mokyr hearts Nobel Prizes

    I don’t like Joel Mokyr’s history of progress and have written about that before. I also have a longer analysis and explanation of my issues coming soon in The Hindu. On December 8 I got more occasion to critique his thinking over his Nobel lecture in Stockholm, after receiving the prize that applied to his inchoate history of European Enlightenment a sheen of credibility I (and others) don’t think it deserves. In his lecture (transcribed in full here), Mokyr said:

    I have argued at great length that these four conditions [incentives for elite innovators; a competitive “market for ideas”; talented people having the freedom to go where they like; a somewhat ‘activist state’] held increasingly in Europe between 1450 and 1750, the three centuries leading up to the industrial revolution. That is the kind of environment that led increasingly to incredibly creative innovative people: Baruch Spinoza, David Hume, James Watt, Adam Smith, Antoine Lavoisier, and Leonhard Euler, [something indecipherable], Ludwig van Beethoven. These are all people who came up with brand new ideas in an environment that supported them, if not perfectly at least far better than anything in the past.

    The question is: do these conditions hold today? I would put it this way: the incentives in propositional knowledge in science are still there and they’re stronger and larger and more pervasive than ever. The market for ideas today provides unprecedented rewards and incentives to successful intellectual innovators, particularly in science. We have hundreds of thousands of people who work in intellectual endeavours, most of them (but not all) in universities. So what we do is we offer them what most of these people need more than anything else, which is financial security, which is tenure and of course in research institutions you get things like named chairs. Then we have rewards and of course there’s a whole pyramid of rewards at which the Nobel Prize and the Abel Prize presumably stand at the very peak, but there are many many other rewards, memberships in academies, and prizes for the best papers and the best books, and honorary degrees.

    The funny thing is these incentives are cheap relative to the benefits that these people bestow on humankind, and that is I think a critical thing. Of course, in addition to all that there’s name recognition, fame through mass media, and, perhaps most important, these things lead to peer recognition: many academics really want to be respected by their peers, by other people like themselves, and of course in addition for a very few you know there’s lots of money to be made if they work in the right fields and get it right. Now, most of these incentives were already noticeable in about 1500, but in some ways the 20th century has done far better than anybody before.

    In short Joel Mokyr treats rewards like the Nobel Prize to be a low-cost “pyramid” of incentives that helps the “upper tail” of society generate ideas. However the Nobel Prizes aren’t only incentives for innovation: they also exemplify how modern societies manage credit and legitimacy, which are examples of social relations, in ways that shape what innovation looks like and who benefits. The irony here is thus that the Nobel Prizes are part of the same system of social relations he underplays in his theory of progress — and a good example of his blindspot vis-à-vis the history of Europe’s progress.

    According to Mokyr, ideas originate in the minds of an intellectual elite — his “upper tail” of society — and society’s job is to reward them. The diffusion of ideas is secondary in his framing. However, scientists, social science scholars, and historians of science have all critiqued the fact that the Nobel Prizes systematically individualise what’s almost always distributed work and sideline the science labour of laboratory managers, technicians, makers of instruments, graduate students, maintenance staff, supply chains, and of course state procurement. The Prizes advance a picture of “elite incentives” working to advance science when in fact it’s predicated equally, if not more, on questions of status and hierarchy, particularly on admission, patronage, language, funding, and geopolitics.

    And in their turn the Prizes impose inefficiencies of their own. As we’ve seen before with the story of Brian Keating, they can reorganise research agendas — and more broadly they fetishise problems in science that can be solved and easily be verified to have been solved by a small number of people ‘first’.

    Later in his lecture Mokyr further says:

    … when technology changes, institutions have to adapt in various ways, and the problem is that they are usually slow to adapt. It takes decades until various parliamentary committees and political forces agree that some form of regulation or some form of control is necessary. And what evolutionary theory suggests is that adaptation to a changing environment is quite possible provided the changes in the technological environment are not too fast and not too abrupt. A sudden discontinuous shock will lead to mass extinctions and catastrophe; we know this is true from evolutionary history.

    So there’s some concern that the acceleration in the rate of technological change in recent decades cannot be matched by institutional adaptation. What’s more, the acceleration implied by the last 10 years’ advances in AI and similar fields [suggests where] this is going to be a problem. Certain technological inventions have led to political polarisations, through social media for instance. This is something we haven’t fully solved and it’s not clear that we will be able to.

    TL;DR: technology often advances faster than institutions adapt and politics, misinformation, nationalism, and xenophobia threaten the conditions for progress.

    But then wouldn’t this mean then that incentives for the elites are the easy part? That is, Nobel Prizes or other incentives like them don’t fix these problems, in fact they may even distract from them by implying the main thing is to simply keep “geniuses” motivated.

  • Why do we trust scientists?

    A friend of mine had recently been asked to consider the possibility that facts can change. Since she brought her thoughts to me, I’ve been thinking about the different ways in which that’s possible. For one, there’s reality and then there’s our knowledge of reality; the two needn’t be coincident. While a statement like ‘facts are facts’ could mean that reality doesn’t change, what we know about reality can still change. For example, our methods to acquire information about reality may have been flawed before and are less flawed now, so what we know about reality, i.e. our facts, change.

    Some items in the political sphere are institutional or conventional: they count as facts only by social consensus. Such facts can lose their identity as such if they lose that consensus. Some examples include money, laws, cultural norms like red light means stop, and — closer to science — the decision to use the p-values as a meaningful statistical threshold; consensus among scientists as to how to define different units of measurement; and the convention of dividing time into years, months, and days.

    A third interpretation is that misinformation or disinformation can get in the way of a person understanding which information is factual and which isn’t. The important thing here is there’s still a constituency of people — the scientists — for whom some information is factual even if for a different constituency that piece of information is not factual.

    In the first interpretation, dispute arises within the expert community as evidence changes; in the second, dispute concerns a socially instituted status across society (including experts). That is, in the first case, scientists’ own knowledge of that information can be updated, sometimes drastically. In the second case, society (including scientists) may disagree over whether a convention should count as a fact for coordination. In the third case, expert consensus holds that the information is factual but segments of the publics reject it.

    These three possibilities leave behind a practical question: when we (non-experts) can’t settle a question of factuality by ourselves — because the evidence is evolving, we can’t agree on conventions or because not all people accept it equally — on what grounds can we justifiably defer to experts? That is, what makes deference rational?

    Epistemic dependence names a basic fact of modern life: for most of what we claim to know, we rely on other people’s testimony rather than our own inspection of the evidence. John Hardwig (the American philosopher famed for the “dying art” argument) has contended that this dependence isn’t a defect but a rational and defensible strategy in complex societies. For instance, individuals can’t master the mathematics of cryptography, the molecular biology of vaccines, the econometrics of inflation, and the engineering of bridges — yet they still trust these fields of science and the suggestions of their exponents in order to make their own decisions.

    Their challenge isn’t to acquire this scientific knowledge (which is often impossible) but to develop reliable ways to distinguish trustworthy from untrustworthy sources of scientific wisdom and to design institutions that make accurate testimony likely and deception expensive. In short, Hardwig’s point is that epistemic responsibility typically involves, rather than rejects, responsible deference to scientists, with the ‘responsibility’ reinforced by the scientists’ track records, incentive structures, and the error-correcting mechanisms operating in the context of their work.

    The German sociologist Max Weber’s typology of authority is relevant here because it helps structure deference. Weber drew lines between traditional authority, charismatic authority, and rational-legal authority. The authority of science aspires to the third because it’s less grounded in who speaks and more in the procedures by which statements are vetted. For instance, a research finding that survives peer review, replication attempts, and other forms of critical scrutiny post-publication bears an impersonal authority — one that doesn’t demand allegiance to a particular leader or a lineage.

    This rational-legal form also defines how sanctions in science work. Retractions, loss of funding, and reputational damage follow codified rules and shared expectations of disclosure and transparency rather than serve as conduits to express the wrath of a sovereign. The non-expert’s deference to scientific claims is thus a portable deference to procedures that the non-expert believes correspond to the truth rather than just the social prestige of scientists. The flip side is that the non-expert must endeavour constantly to maintain these procedures.

    Further, when scientific procedures are politicised or when charismatic or traditional authorities claim jurisdiction over empirical questions, the basis for deference goes away. That is to say, appeals to ‘trust science’ work only to the extent that the rational-legal authority remains credible.

    The sociology of expertise has refined these observations by describing how expertise is distributed and recognised. In particular, the philosophers Harry Collins and Robert Evans have distinguished between contributory expertise and interactional expertise. Contributory experts can produce and evaluate new knowledge within a field; they’re called so because their competence is a function of their ability to contribute meaningfully to research. Interactional experts can’t contribute original work but they can speak the language of the field fluently enough to engage credibly with contributory experts.

    Policymakers, journalists, and ethicists embedded in laboratories often need this interactional fluency to translate findings across domains and to interrogate claims without performing the experiments themselves. This distinction helps separate legitimate from irrational deference. A well-equipped non-expert or policymaker still can’t adjudicate between competing models in climate dynamics, say, but an interactional expert should be able to parse which disagreements are barely signals (rather than noise) and which are symptoms of deeper methodological divides.

    (Aside: The idea isn’t unlike Bora Zivkovic’s concept of journalists as “temporary experts” because the topics they’re conversant with in the interactional sense can be transient, from anthropology this week to zoology the next. But for the purpose of this post, this nuance is redundant.)

    Further, peer review, gatekeeping, and credentialing don’t only protect quality but also control who’s inside the conversation and who isn’t. These practices can devolve into exclusion and conservatism but they’re also useful to guard against diluting standards. In their paper, Collins and Evans proposed that the legitimacy of expert advice in public matters depends on both the technical adequacy of contributory experts and the social processes that connect them to decision-makers and the affected publics. And deference is both rational and democratic when those processes are transparent, include mechanisms for non-experts to challenge experts, and acknowledge uncertainty.

    Robert Merton’s widely cited norms of communalism, universalism, disinterestedness, and organised scepticism underpin these arrangements. Communalism holds that scientific knowledge is a common resource and that results should be shared, methods disclosed, data made available, etc. Universalism requires claims to be evaluated by impersonal criteria and independent of the claimant’s identity or status. Disinterestedness expects scientists to subordinate their personal or financial incentives to the pursuit of truth and declare conflicts and design protections against bias. Organised scepticism institutionalises doubt in the form of peer review, replication studies, and methodological criticism.

    Together, these Mertonian norms offer a sort of moral economy for the production of reliable beliefs — but the issue is reality is almost always more messy. Empirical studies often reveal ‘counter-norms’ and tensions while competition for grants and prestige can incentivise scientists to chase hype (e.g. Brian Keating), salami-slice their results (e.g. Brian Wansink) or resort to p-hacking (e.g. Francesca Gino). Commercialisation and intellectual property regimes can restrain communalism. Social hierarchies can undermine universalism through the Matthew effect, where credit accrues to already eminent scientists. People can be insufficiently sceptical of research findings when they align with dominant paradigms or market interests.

    The replication crisis in parts of psychology and biomedicine also revealed how structural incentives could produce a research literature high in statistical significance but low in reliability. Yet the very diagnosis of a replication crisis also illustrates the self-correcting aspiration of the Mertonian norms: attempts at reform in the form of registered reports, data-sharing mandates, stricter statistical thresholds, and post-publication review are simply forms of organised scepticism turned inward on itself. The point isn’t that Merton’s norms are fully realised but that they set expectations against which research practice can be judged and corrected.

    Taken together, epistemic dependence is unavoidable — and perhaps desirable. Authority rooted in rational-legal procedures can channel that dependence through institutions explicitly designed to reward truth and punish errors. In parallel, the sociology of expertise explains how technical competence is recognised, translated, and connected to publics while the Mertonian norms articulate the moral constraints that make the whole arrangement credible.

    When this system in toto functions well, non-experts don’t need to track every inference in a paper to hold a justified belief: it’s enough that they trust a claim has been produced in conditions that make accuracy more likely than not and that there are durable pathways for them to detect and fix mistakes. Likewise, when the system falters because incentives have become misaligned, boundaries have hardened into dogma or norms are being honoured in the breach, deference ceases to be rational and starts to resemble a more reductive allegiance.

    To be clear, punishing errors isn’t the essence of scientific credibility so much as transparency in the face of organised criticism. Sanctions against scientists are important to uphold incentives for them to pay attention, conduct replication studies, and disclose their methods and data — but punishment without openness can quickly become arbitrary. Second, rational deference is compatible with democratic debates about how expertise is mobilised in policy. A technically sound result can still be challenged on the grounds of its values and trade-offs.

    In practice, then, the non-expert’s trust is best anchored not in claims about the moral virtue of scientists or assertions that “science says something” but in the visibility of institutions that embody Mertonian norms, the availability of interactional experts who can translate and interrogate scientific knowledge, and the continuity of disciplinary mechanisms that correct errors in public view.

    Axiomatically, deference to any “alternative system” of knowledge is indefensible when it asks for authority without submitting to the same procedures that justify deference to science. The problem isn’t the origin of a claim but how tests of its reliability are governed. When the so-called “Indian knowledge system” is advanced as an epistemic substitute, for instance, it grounds authority in identity, heritage, and scriptural precedence — all bases that don’t instantiate the mechanisms that make testimony trustworthy in complex domains, including public methods, reproducible tests, data disclosure, independent scrutiny, and routine exposure to organised criticism.

    Scientific authority is portable because its procedures are impersonal, i.e. a result is credible irrespective of who produced it, provided it survives scrutiny. Alternative systems invert this logic by privileging who speaks — the text, the lineage, the nation — over how claims are vetted. This inversion erodes Mertonian communalism by restricting access to methods or sources to insider circles and blunts organised scepticism by classifying critical appraisal as disloyalty. Once criticism becomes pathologised in this way, incentives to detect and report error fade and testimony ceases to be a rational basis for belief.

  • Marginalia: Romila on textbooks, Rapido ad, Nobel nonsense

    We may go on deleting sections of our history but in the world outside where there are multiple centres of research into the Indian past, and many scholars, there these expunged sections from books used in India will continue to be studied. They will be subjected to new methods of analyses, will be commented upon, will enrich the understanding of India with new knowledge, and all this will be incorporated into the history of India that will be taught everywhere except in India. We in India will not know anything about that section of Indian history which has been deleted from our books.

    Outside India, the multiple cultures of India and their achievements will be studied as part of Indian history and Indian culture, irrespective of the religion of the dynasties that may have presided over the achievements. They will be studied in universities, libraries and museums dedicated to the study of India, as a continuation of not only the Indian past but also of the past pertaining to happenings current in various parts of the world. These will have pride of place not only in the history of India but in the history of human achievements. But we in India will be entirely ignorant of their significance since we shall not know them as a part of Indian history nor as a part of other histories of the world. These would have been cultures that we once recognised as those to which we once contributed, and with which we once had exchanges, when we created the Indian civilisation of past times.

    ‘If NCERT Has its Way, the Study of Indian History Will Move Entirely Outside of India’, Romila Thapar, The Wire

    Well written by historian Romila Thapar, on the NCERT’s decision to excise some important parts of Indian history from school textbooks. First, it’s hard not to come away after reading this being struck by how reminiscent this ‘moving out’ of scholarship is of what colonialism inflicted on India, especially in terms of the natural resources that were transferred from India to the United Kingdom, never to be returned – resources that both the left and the right like to thump their chests over. Self-inflicted colonialism is worse than tragedy. I did think the “we in India will not know anything about that section of Indian history which has been deleted from our books” part was a bit of a reach because I know from experience that as long as you have access to uncensored information on the internet and a few people in your familial or social circles to nudge you to access it, it’s possible to start questioning ideologies, privileges, faith, assumptions, etc. This said, I don’t claim to understand the consequences of depriving relatively very young people of a wholesome history education, which only heightens the risk of ignorance if the people around them agree with their syllabus. Third, while alt-history edits to school textbooks have really brought the problem home, they have been preceded in time by, among others, the Vedas and Ayurvedic texts. They weren’t literary edited; however, the government changed what most people believed their contents to be. And I suspect it will be possible to see in the textbooks’ fate parallels to what befell the Vedas and Ayurveda: one fed Hindutva myths about the mythical achievements of ‘ancient India’ while the other helped pro-party businessmen commercialise these myths.


    Rapido’s ads continue to be nonsensical, or appeal to sensibilities that on the face of it have nothing to do with public transport and commuting. Last time, the ad with Allu Arjun and Ranbir Kapoor (among others) took a cynical view of road traffic, asking commuters to opt for Rapido’s ‘bike taxis’ because they could cut through traffic and wouldn’t “mince” them up like public buses might, effectively discouraging encouraging unsafe driving on roads and discouraging, to quote myself, “civic disengagement from the task of improving public transport”. A new ad that’s been airing for a week or so has the tagline, “bike-wali taxi, sabse saxi“, to the accompaniment of visual narratives in which there is a long queue of people waiting to catch an auto and a bus packed to the rafters with people. So… I’m to take bike taxis because they’re “sexy?” I don’t get it. Maybe the purpose of the new ad is to be an ad for an ad’s sake, to let people know that such a thing exists, but I’m not sold. It’s still a lot like the first ad, and both of which are like Elon Musk’s comments in the context of his Hyperloop idea: that we should desist from using public transport because we might be travelling with a serial killer (and his hope that someone else will build a Hyperloop provided a high-speed rail line in California, and its higher carrying capacity, is cancelled). In all cases, we have people being asked to take the easy way out, in favour of corporate entities invested in people being concerned only with their own comfort, over forcing the government to do better. The latter is always only going to be hard, requiring public organisation and mobilisation, but never opting for this path just opens the door wider to self-serving companies and further undermine the centrality of public transport to a healthy democracy. If India’s status as a democracy is fading, as even The Lancet noted earlier today, we’re contributing, too.

    Also how much are these bike-wali drivers paid?


    “This is embarrassing,” [Charles Lieber] said at his trial. “Every scientist wants to win a Nobel Prize.”

    ‘Charles Lieber, Ex-Harvard Professor, Sentenced in China Ties Case’, Gina Kolata, The New York Times

    An obligatory reminder that the Nobel Prizes influence how science is practiced – rather than being a completely isolated entity that just selects some arbitrarily defined “best scientific endeavour” and gives it a medal, a certificate, and lots of money. We’ve seen this before with Brian Keating, who made a big mistake before acknowledging it and coming clean. Now that Charles Lieber has committed his blunder, I hope he’ll stop pursuing a Nobel Prize as well and just pursue good science instead. But the ideal, but seemingly also very unlikely, thing to happen would be for scientists at large to understand a) why trying to win a Nobel Prize is not trying to do good science even though the former claims to exclusively reward the latter and b) that almost all ‘prestigious’ honours concerned with scientific work – including the universities to work at, the grants to win, and the journals in which to publish – will over time distort the desirability of different fields of study (and even scientists’ estimate of which questions are worth answering), the contents of the scientific literature, what constitutes ‘success’ (e.g. positive results v. negative results), and who can be considered to be successful. (Pseudo-prestigious awards might be even more dangerous.)

  • The question of Abdus Salam ‘deserving’ his Nobel

    Peter Woit has blogged about an oral history interview with theoretical physicist Sheldon Glashow published in 2020 by the American Institute of Physics. (They have a great oral history of physics series you should check out if you’re interested.) Woit zeroed in on a portion in which Glashow talks about his faltering friendship with Steven Weinberg and his issues with Abdus Salam’s nomination for the physics Nobel Prize.

    Glashow, Weinberg and Salam together won this prize in 1979, for their work on the work on electroweak theory, which describes the behaviour of two fundamental forces, the electromagnetic force and the weak force. Glashow recalls that his and Weinberg’s friendship – having studied and worked together for many years – deteriorated in the 1970s, a time in which both scientists were aware that they were due a Nobel Prize. According to Glashow, however, Weinberg wanted the prize to be awarded only to himself and Salam.

    This is presumably because of how the prize-winning work came to be: with Glashow’s mathematical-physical model published in 1960, Weinberg building on it seven years later, with Salam’s two relevant papers appeared a couple years after Glashow’s paper and a year after Weinberg’s. Glashow recalls that Salam’s work was not original, that each of his two papers respectively echoed findings already published in Glashow’s and Weinberg’s papers. Instead, Glashow continues, Salam received the Nobel Prize probably because he had encouraged his peers and his colleagues to nominate him a very large number of times and because he set up the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) in Trieste.

    This impression, of Salam being undeserving from a contribution-to-physics point of view in Glashow’s telling, is very at odds with the impression of Salam based on reading letters and comments by Weinberg and Pervez Hoodbhoy and by watching the documentary Salam – The First ****** Nobel Laureate.

    The topic of Salam being a Nobel laureate was never uncomplicated, to begin with: he was an Ahmadi Muslim who enjoyed the Pakistan government’s support until he didn’t, when he was forced to flee the country; his intentions with the ICTP – to give scholars from developing countries a way to study physics without having to contend with often-crippling resource constrains – were also noble. Hoodbhoy has also written about the significance of Salam’s work as a physicist and the tragedy of his name and the memories of his contributions having been erased from all the prominent research centres in Pakistan.

    Finally, one of Salam’s nominees for a Nobel Prize was the notable British physicist and Nobel laureate Paul A.M. Dirac, and it seems strange that Dirac would endorse Salam if he didn’t believe Salam’s work deserved it.

    Bearing these facts in mind, Glashow’s contention appears to be limited to the originality of Salam’s work. But to my mind, even if Salam’s work was really derivative, it was at par with that of Glashow and Weinberg. More importantly, while I believe the Nobel Prizes deserve to be abrogated, the prize-giving committee did more good than it might have realised by including Salam among its winners: in the words of Weinberg, “Salam sacrificed a lot of possible scientific productivity by taking on that responsibility [to set up ICTP]. It’s a sacrifice I would not make.”

    Glashow may not feel very well about Salam’s inclusion for the 1979 prize and the Nobel Prizes as we know are only happy to overlook anything other than the scientific work itself, but if the committee really screwed up, then they screwed up to do a good thing.

    Then again, even though Glashow wasn’t alone (he was joined by Martinus J.G. Veltman on his opinions against Salam), the physicists’ community at large doesn’t share his views. Glashow also cites an infamous 2014 paper by Norman Dombey, in which Dombey concluded that Salam didn’t deserve his share of the prize, but the paper’s reputation itself is iffy at best.

    In fact, this is all ultimately a pointless debate: there are just too many people who deserve a Nobel Prize but don’t win it while a deeper dive into the modern history of physics should reveal a near-constant stream of complaints against Nobel laureates and their work by their peers. It should be clear today that both winning a prize and not winning a prize ought to mean nothing to the practice of science.

    The other remarkable thing about Glashow’s comments in the interview (as cited by Woit) is what I like to think of as the seemingly eternal relevance of Brian Keating’s change of mind. Brian Keating is an astrophysicist who was at the forefront of the infamous announcement that his team had discovered evidence of cosmic inflation, an epoch of the early universe in which it is believed to have expanded suddenly and greatly, in March 2014. There were many problems leading up to the announcement but there was little doubt at the time, and Keating also admitted later, that its rapidity was motivated by the temptation to secure a Nobel Prize.

    Many journalists, scientists and others observers of the practice of science routinely and significantly underestimate the effect the Nobel Prizes exert on scientific research. The prospect of winning the prize for supposedly discovering evidence of cosmic inflation caused Keating et al. to not wait for additional, confirmatory data before making their announcement. When such data did arrive, from the Planck telescope collaboration, Keating et al. suffered for it with their reputation and prospects.

    Similarly, Weinberg and Glashow fell out because, according to Glashow, Weinberg didn’t wish Glashow to give a talk in 1979 discussing possible alternatives to the work of Weinberg and Salam because Weinberg thought doing such a thing would undermine his and Salam’s chances of being awarded a Nobel Prize. Eventually it didn’t, but that’s beside the point: this little episode in history is as good an illustration as any of how the Nobel Prizes and their implied promises of laurels and prestige render otherwise smart scientists insecure, petty and elbows-out competitive – in exchange for sustaining an absurd and unjust picture of the scientific enterprise.

    All of this goes obviously against the spirit of science.

  • Charles Lieber case: A high-energy probe of science

    There’s a phenomenon in high-energy particle physics that I’ve found instructive as a metaphor to explain some things whose inner character may not be apparent to us but whose true nature is exposed in extreme situations. For example, consider the case of Charles Lieber, an American chemist whom a jury found guilty earlier today of lying to the US government about participating in a Chinese science programme and about having a Chinese bank account.

    Through our everyday interactions with protons and neutrons – sitting in the nuclei of their respective atoms – we’d have no reason to believe that they’re made up of smaller particles. But when you probe a proton with another particle at an extremely high energy, such a probe can reveal that the proton is really made of smaller particles called up and down quarks.

    Similarly, Lieber’s case is an extreme instance of a national government clashing with the nation’s scientific enterprise for engaging in a science-related activity with immutable political implications. In our everyday interactions, there is no reason to believe that the government, or any other relatively more powerful political entity, could have a problem with what some scientist is working on or has to say. But sparks start to fly the moment the scientist’s work, words or even thoughts begin to have political implications.

    It’s not like the protons are not made of up and down quarks when probed at lower energies; it’s that the latter don’t reveal themselves. Similarly, it’s not like science isn’t a political activity even when it lacks political implications; it’s that the relationship between science and politics, in that limited context, is too feeble to matter. But it’s there.

    According to a New York Times article explaining Lieber’s case, by Ellen Barry so you know it’s well-written, the Trump-era ‘China Initiative’ to “root out scientists suspected of sharing sensitive information with China” has been accused of “prosecutorial overreach”, but also that Lieber also shot himself in the foot by denying his involvement in the Chinese programme when “he was specifically asked about his participation”.

    Barry’s article makes the point that scientists are scared because the US government criminalised otherwise innocuous activities – activities that scientists have spent decades learning to not fear. At the same time, it would be unfair to spare Lieber – an accomplished nanoscience expert employed at Harvard University – the expectation to know what the consequences of his actions might be and the risk of ignoring them.

    Perhaps he harboured a sense of exceptionalism vis-à-vis his cause; perhaps he thought the ‘China Initiative’ that had knocked on the doors of other scientists wouldn’t knock on his; perhaps he just assumed it wouldn’t matter. But any which way, more than just being “about scaring the scientific community”, as one of Lieber’s former students says in the article, the initiative’s victory in the Charles Lieber case should also remind scientists that the best way to beat the initiative is for the scientific community to proactively engage in political issues.

    Lieber’s excuse, according to tapes of his interrogation by FBI officers, was that he wished to train younger scientists in a technology he had developed and thus increase his chances of winning a Nobel Prize. This is the science-politics link coming back to bite Lieber, and others like him (notably Brian Keating, whose act of ‘coming clean’ on this sentiment I continue to find admirable), who risk ruining their careers just win the prize (see addendum).

    One major impediment to acknowledging that politics is suffused in every human enterprise – including science – that happens in any organised society whose people govern themselves is that people often misunderstand politics to be “what their politicians say/do” instead of “the practice of self-governance”. But by understanding it to be the former, there’s a hoopla every time some political leader or other apparently oversteps their remit.


    Addendum

    Three comments.

    First, somewhere between the early 20th century and the early 21st, the prize’s perception went from being “do good work and you’ll win it” to “do good work and then hack your way to winning it”.

    Second, I’ve seen this tendency of going ‘over and beyond’ to ensure one wins a Nobel Prize predominantly among scientists of the US – which in turn is hard to separate from the fact that most winners of the science Nobel Prizes have been from the US. There is perhaps a academic-cultural issue at work, and there’s certainly a competition issue at work. People are first nominated for a prize by eminent individuals and former laureates, and thanks to a historical skew of the laureates’ countries of citizenship (in favour of the US thanks to the rise of Nazism in Europe) and the way industry and the scientific publishing enterprise are organised today, both these groups of people as well as new laureates are skewed US-ward. What happens when a country produces “too much” good work for one prize, and its inexplicable rule to award only three people at a time, to consider? Surely Lieber believed this and wanted to get ahead of others, leading to his bullheaded actions?

    Third, dismantle the Nobel Prizes.

    Featured image: Charles M. Lieber. Credit: Kris Snibbe/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0.

  • Why are the Nobel Prizes still relevant?

    Note: A condensed version of this post has been published in The Wire.

    Around this time last week, the world had nine new Nobel Prize winners in the sciences (physics, chemistry and medicine), all but one of whom were white and none were women. Before the announcements began, Göran Hansson, the Swede-in-chief of these prizes, had said the selection committee has been taking steps to make the group of laureates more racially and gender-wise inclusive, but it would seem they’re incremental measures, as one editorial in the journal Nature pointed out.

    Hansson and co. seems to find the argument that the Nobel Prizes award achievements at a time where there weren’t many women in science tenable when in fact it distracts from the selection committee’s bizarre oversight of such worthy names as Lise Meitner, Vera Rubin, Chien-Shiung Wu, etc. But Hansson needs to understand that the only meaningful change is change that happens right away because, even for this significant flaw that should by all means have diminished the prizes to a contest of, for and by men, the Nobel Prizes have only marginally declined in reputation.

    Why do they matter when they clearly shouldn’t?

    For example, according to the most common comments received in response to articles by The Wire shared on Twitter and Facebook, and always from men, the prizes reward excellence, and excellence should brook no reservation, whether by caste or gender. As is likely obvious to many readers, this view of scholastic achievement resembles a blade of grass: long, sprouting from the ground (the product of strong roots but out of sight, out of mind), rising straight up and culminating in a sharp tip.

    However, achievement is more like a jungle: the scientific enterprise – encompassing research institutions, laboratories, the scientific publishing industry, administration and research funding, social security, availability of social capital, PR, discoverability and visibility, etc. – incorporates many vectors of bias, discrimination and even harassment towards its more marginalised constituents. Your success is not your success alone; and if you’re an upper-caste, upper-class, English-speaking man, you should ask yourself, as many such men have been prompted to in various walks of life, who you might have displaced.

    This isn’t a witch-hunt as much as an opportunity to acknowledge how privilege works and what we can do to make scientific work more equal, equitable and just in future. But the idea that research is a jungle and research excellence is a product of the complex interactions happening among its thickets hasn’t found meaningful purchase, and many people still labour with a comically straightforward impression that science is immune to social forces. Hansson might be one of them if his interview to Nature is anything to go by, where he says:

    … we have to identify the most important discoveries and award the individuals who have made them. If we go away from that, then we’ve devalued the Nobel prize, and I think that would harm everyone in the end.

    In other words, the Nobel Prizes are just going to look at the world from the top, and probably from a great distance too, so the jungle has been condensed to a cluster of pin-pricks.

    Another reason why the Nobel Prizes haven’t been easy to sideline is that the sciences’ ‘blade of grass’ impression is strongly historically grounded, with help from notions like scientific knowledge spreads from the Occident to the Orient.

    Who’s the first person that comes to mind when I say “Nobel Prize for physics”? I bet it’s Albert Einstein. He was so great that his stature as a physicist has over the decades transcended his human identity and stamped the Nobel Prize he won in 1921 with an indelible mark of credibility. Now, to win a Nobel Prize in physics is to stand alongside Einstein himself.

    This union between a prize and its laureate isn’t unique to the Nobel Prize or to Einstein. As I’ve said before, prizes are elevated by their winners. When Margaret Atwood wins the Booker Prize, it’s better for the prize than it is for her; when Isaac Asimov won a Hugo Award in 1963, near the start of his career, it was good for him, but it was good for the prize when he won it for the sixth time in 1992 (the year he died). The Nobel Prizes also accrued a substantial amount of prestige this way at a time when it wasn’t much of a problem, apart from the occasional flareup over ignoring deserving female candidates.

    That their laureates have almost always been from Europe and North America further cemented the prizes’ impression that they’re the ultimate signifier of ‘having made it’, paralleling the popular undercurrent among postcolonial peoples that science is a product of the West and that they’re simply its receivers.

    That said, the prize-as-proxy issue has contributed considerably as well to preserving systemic bias at the national and international levels. Winning a prize (especially a legitimate one) accords the winner’s work with a modicum of credibility and the winner, of prestige. Depending on how the winners of a prize to be awarded suitably in the future are to be selected, such credibility and prestige could be potentiated to skew the prize in favour of people who have already won other prizes.

    For example, a scientist-friend ranted to me about how, at a conference he had recently attended, another scientist on stage had introduced himself to his audience by mentioning the impact factors of the journals he’d had his papers published in. The impact factor deserves to die because, among other reasons, it attempts to condense multi-dimensional research efforts and the vagaries of scientific publishing into a single number that stands for some kind of prestige. But its users should be honest about its actual purpose: it was designed so evaluators could take one look at it and decide what to do about a candidate to whom it corresponded. This isn’t fair – but expeditiousness isn’t cheap.

    And when evaluators at different rungs of the career advancement privilege the impact factor, scientists with more papers published earlier in their careers in journals with higher impact factors become exponentially likelier to be recognised for their efforts (probably even irrespective of their quality given the unique failings of high-IF journals, discussed here and here) over time than others.

    Brian Skinner, a physicist at Ohio State University, recently presented a mathematical model of this ‘prestige bias’ and whose amplification depended in a unique way, according him, on a factor he called the ‘examination precision’. He found that the more ambiguously defined the barrier to advancement is, the more pronounced the prestige bias could get. Put another way, people who have the opportunity to maintain systemic discrimination simultaneously have an incentive to make the points of entry into their club as vague as possible. Sound familiar?

    One might argue that the Nobel Prizes are awarded to people at the end of their careers – the average age of a physics laureate is in the late 50s; John Goodenough won the chemistry prize this year at 97 – so the prizes couldn’t possibly increase the likelihood of a future recognition. But the sword cuts both ways: the Nobel Prizes are likelier than not to be the products a prestige bias amplification themselves, and are therefore not the morally neutral symbols of excellence Hansson and his peers seem to think they are.

    Fourth, the Nobel Prizes are an occasion to speak of science. This implies that those who would deride the prizes but at the same time hold them up are equally to blame, but I would agree only in part. This exhortation to try harder is voiced more often than not by those working in the West, with publications with better resources and typically higher purchasing power. On principle I can’t deride the decisions reporters and editors make in the process of building an audience for science journalism, with the hope that it will be profitable someday, all in a resource-constrained environment, even if some of those choices might seem irrational.

    (The story of Brian Keating, an astrophysicist, could be illuminating at this juncture.)

    More than anything else, what science journalism needs to succeed is a commonplace acknowledgement that science news is important – whether it’s for the better or the worse is secondary – and the Nobel Prizes do a fantastic job of getting the people’s attention towards scientific ideas and endeavours. If anything, journalists should seize the opportunity in October every year to also speak about how the prizes are flawed and present their readers with a fuller picture.

    Finally, and of course, we have capitalism itself – implicated in the quantum of prize money accompanying each Nobel Prize (9 million Swedish kronor, Rs 6.56 crore or $0.9 million).

    Then again, this figure pales in comparison to the amounts that academic institutions know they can rake in by instrumentalising the prestige in the form of donations from billionaires, grants and fellowships from the government, fees from students presented with the tantalising proximity to a Nobel laureate, and in the form of press coverage. L’affaire Epstein even demonstrated how it’s possible to launder a soiled reputation by investing in scientific research because institutions won’t ask too many questions about who’s funding them.

    The Nobel Prizes are money magnets, and this is also why winning a Nobel Prize is like winning an Academy Award: you don’t get on stage without some lobbying. Each blade of grass has to mobilise its own PR machine, supported in all likelihood by the same institute that submitted their candidature to the laureates selection committee. The Nature editorial called this out thus:

    As a small test case, Nature approached three of the world’s largest international scientific networks that include academies of science in developing countries. They are the International Science Council, the World Academy of Sciences and the InterAcademy Partnership. Each was asked if they had been approached by the Nobel awarding bodies to recommend nominees for science Nobels. All three said no.

    I believe those arguments that serve to uphold the Nobel Prizes’ relevance must take recourse through at least one of these reasons, if not all of them. It’s also abundantly clear that the Nobel Prizes are important not because they present a fair or useful picture of scientific excellence but in spite of it.